This satellite image made by the Japanese weather satellite Himawari-8 shows the eruption of the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Haapai undersea volcano at the Pacific nation of Tonga on Saturday, Jan. 15, 2022. | Arctic Arkansas, RELATED: Winter warnings vs watches, what's the difference? AccuWeather long-range forecasters are predicting that 40 to 50 inches will accumulate in the city, around the average snowfall amount of 49.2 inches. Note eastward shifting of shaded areas with each successive numbered phase as you view the figure from top to bottom. Pastelok added that unlike volcanic ash, which reflects sunlight, the water vapor acts like a blanket and keeps warmer air trapped underneath. The forecast predicts the "first bite of winter" is expected. This is different from 2022 when the middle part of the winter season in California turned drier then stormy again in the spring. Favorable things for a colder-than-normal winter. Also, there is a tendency toward below-average snowfall over the mid-Atlantic, New England, and northern and central Plains, which is not seen during weak La Nia. The uneven snowpack may bring drastic swings across the central U.S. as warm and cold areas compete for dominance. As of Tuesday, Sept. 20, 74% of the western U.S. was experiencing at least a moderate drought, 18% was experiencing extreme drought, and there were pockets of exceptional drought -- the most severe of drought categories -- in California's San Joaquin Valley, central Oregon and central Utah. According to the 2022-2023 Farmers' Almanac winter weather forecast, we'll want to keep our warm clothes at the front of our closet. There is more sinking air motion over the cooler waters of the central and eastern Pacific. including sunrise/sunset and moon phases. The precipitation pattern, presented above, shows negative anomalies (indicating below-normal rainfall) across the entire southern part of the country with a weaker signal of above-average precipitation in the Ohio Valley and in the Pacific Northwest and the northern Rockies. "But we can see some moderate systems and occasionally one bigger period where it does get hit hard in the Northwest.". Just 2 have been among the warmest third. For more information, please contact Barb Mayes Boustead (barbara.mayes@noaa.gov) at the National Weather Service or Steve Hilberg (hberg@illinois.edu). ARKANSAS, USA Pre-season cold blasts have already brought rounds of snow and chilly air to Arkansas, but will this continue December, January, and February? NWS WRN Ambassadors, Additional Information If you're planning to visit Arkansas in the near future, we highly recommend that you review the 14 day weather forecast for Arkansas before you arrive. (Weather station: Adams Field, USA). "The last two Februarys have featured significant cold waves for the central and southern Plains," Pastelok said. Hazardous Weather Outlook Hot Chocolate Warning In The East and South Geophys. The typical U.S. impacts are warmer- and drier-than-average conditions across the southern tier of the United States, colder-than-average conditions across the north-central Plains, and wetter-than-average conditions in the Ohio Valley and Pacific Northwest/Northern California. Figure 1. Climate in Arkansas Arkansas, Arkansas gets 51 inches of rain, on average, per year. -5NEWS Chief Meteorologist Matt Standridge, RELATED: Winter, yay or nay? Precipitation Reports And like for seasonal temperature and precipitation, knowing the state of ENSO is a pretty reasonable place to start. A wave of chilly air swept across the Northeast and Midwest just in time for the arrival of astronomical autumn, which started on Sept. 22, but the arrival of astronomical winter on Dec. 21 may not start in a similar fashion. Wallace, 2000: Annular modes in the extratropical circulation. . wind chill, blowing snow), Does not include mixed precipitation or freezing rain explicitly (a preciponly version of AWSSI may help address the impacts of these events). "These third-year La Nias are very tricky," Pastelok said, with no two La Nia winters being exactly the same. where snowfall is greater than average and brown shows where snowfall is less than average. However, no two La Nia winters will have identical precipitation patterns. Arkansas's central location allows weather systems from all directions to influence its climate. Winter Weather Safety. 8, August 2015: 1693-1712. varies on a week-to-week basis). In the South and Southeast, where the signal is strongest, we see a clear shift in activity with the ENSO phase, but with a tremendous range of variability, meaning some El Nio years still have high severe weather activity, and some La Nia years are relatively inactive. Even when it does snow during the week, the impacts on daily routines may not be the same as they were a few years ago. For the MJO to be considered active, this dipole of enhanced/suppressed convective phases must be present and shifting eastward with time. Take a look at the official winter predictions with a summary from The 2023 Old Farmer's Almanac. "The main storm track will be even farther north than it was the first half of the winter season last year including the late fall.". Indeed, historic tornado outbreaks in1974,2008,and2011started during La Nia conditions. Sci.,28, 702-708. The "new" farmers' almanac is predicting a "numb's the word, just shoveling along" winter in Northwest Arkansas with a "chilled to the bone, near-normal precipitation" for the River Valley.. Notice how the shading returns to the same location on the order of about 45 days. By Last December, a catastrophic severe weather outbreak spawned tornadoes in nine states, causing 76 fatalities and $18 billion in damage just before the start of the holiday season. Author:Michael K. Tippett and Chiara Lepore Schools 2000, Cassou, 2008, Lin et al. Riddle,E. E.,M. B.Stoner,N. C.Johnson,M. L.LHeureux,D. C.Collins, andS. B.Feldstein,2013:The impact of the MJO on clusters of wintertime circulation anomalies over the North American region. Overall, stronger La Nia events exert more influence on the winter climate pattern over western North America. Notifications can be turned off anytime in the browser settings. Until recently, the only solid evidence showing that more tornadoes occur during La Nia conditions was for winter (January-March), when the ENSO signal is strongest, but average tornado activity is relatively low (Cook & Schaefer, 2008). Boaters Last January, accumulating snow was observed on just four days throughout the month, amounting to 12.3 inches. This year, with the extreme summer weather conditions broiling the country, and the growing concern over the rising costs of heating oil, Farmers' Almanac is releasing its winter weather forecast earlier than ever. The best opportunity for snow or wintry precipitation across the interior Southeast will arrive in January and early February with one or two snowfall events possible in this timeframe. All NOAA, A winter storm will track northeast across the region this evening into Thursday, bringing snow, heavy at times. The warmth will extend south across the border to places like Lubbock and Amarillo, Texas, as well as to the north and west as spots like Dodge City and Wichita, Kansas, and Denver could have above-normal temperatures. For those curious about why this occurs, Nat Johnson wrote an article on it for the NOAA Climate Blog on May 27, 2021. One of the biggest players in the central U.S. this winter will be the polar vortex, a large pocket of frigid air that typically resides in the vicinity of the Arctic Circle. J. Atmos. With enhanced rotation found in the atmosphere during the winter months, plus a warmer temperature forecast, we expect a higher chance for severe weather. However the majority of ice storms have hit during La Nia winters. Forecasting,29, 2338. NOAA Climate.gov drawing by Fiona Martin. Below are the temperature, precipitation, and snow data for La Crosse, WI, and Rochester, MN. The AWSSI data is gathered every hour throughout the day. The NAO index is obtained by projecting the NAO loading pattern to the daily anomaly 500 millibar height field over 0-90N. Science / Research The Farmers' Almanac, which has made weather predictions for the U.S. since 1818, has released its 2022-2023 winter forecast. AccuWeather is forecasting seasonal snowfall totals of 18-23 inches for New York City this coming winter and 14-20 inches for Philadelphia, both of which would be below average for those cities. The AO's positive phase is characterized by lower-than-average air pressure over the Arctic paired with higher-than-average pressure over the northern Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. This failure of the typical pattern occurs because La Nia is never the only thing that influences the climate over the United States during the winter. The MJO was first discovered in the early 1970s by Dr. Roland Madden and Dr. Paul Julian when they were studying tropical wind and pressure patterns. Weak LaNias (41% chance for this winter) tend to favor colder- and near-normal winters. A few of these dates include: The first week of January in the Rockies and across the Plains. Differences between the two periods for the precipitation composites are much smaller and therefore are not shown here. While increased tornado activity is generally associated with La Nina conditions, blaming this years high activity on the weak La Nina conditions would be exaggerating the strength of the historical relationship (footnote 2). Emergency Management "Unfortunately, we have bad news as far as the drought goes in parts of California, Nevada and the Southwest," Pastelok said. Specifically, the lingering water vapor from the January eruption could indirectly help to fortify the polar vortex over the North Pole, preventing it from dipping down across North America. 21 it will be quite colder, snow percip. Weather Forecast Legend WeatherTAB helps you plan activities on days with the least risk of rain. Our Office Winter Thoughts #1 - Our First Look at the Winter of 2022 - 2023! This is lower than last winter when there were four occasions on which snow accumulated across the region. Best for planning. River Stages Pastelok said that the chance of a widespread frost or freeze is low this year, but if it does occur, it will likely take place in late January. Every day can be drastically different than the next. This once-in-a-lifetime eruption was so powerful that it sent shockwaves around the world and caused the amount of water vapor in the stratosphere to increase by around 5%, according to a recent report by The Associated Press. CPC 2022-23 U.S. Winter Outlook: The following video highlights from NOAA's 2022-2023 Winter Outlook that provide seasonal predictions for temperature, precipitation, and drought. Sea surface temperature pattern showing the warm phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (top). Brian Lada, AccuWeather meteorologist and staff writer, Published Sep 28, 2022 2:35 PM CET The daily scores are accumulated through the winter season, allowing a running total of winter severity in the midst of a season as well as a final, cumulative value characterizing the full season. 2: Inside baseball: Further details of the ENSO relation. Equal chance display areas where confidence is low, so there is an equal chance of it being among the warmest third, near-normal, or among the coldest third. In cities such as Washington, D.C., the emphasis is not on how much snow will fall, but on how often snow makes an appearance. US Dept of Commerce The winter season begins when the first of any one of the following instances occur: First measurable snowfall (>= 0.1 inch) The Gulf of Mexico sea surface temperature is negatively correlated with the tropical Pacific sea surface temperature, meaning when the tropical Pacific is cooler than average (La Nia), the Gulf of Mexico is usually warmer than average. There has been a fair amount of variability in the winter temperature and precipitation patterns during La Nia, but also that there are some clear tendencies for above or below normal temperature or precipitation in some regions. Locally, the odds have been tilted slightly toward colder-than-normal (not just a tenth of a degree colder than normal, but among the coldest third of the winters from 1991-2020)in northeast Iowa, southeast Minnesota, and western Wisconsin. Convection remained suppressed over the western and central tropical Pacific and enhanced over Indonesia[Fig. The NAO loading pattern has been chosen as the first mode of a Rotated Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis using monthly mean 500 millibar height anomaly data from 1950 to 2000 over 0-90N latitude. Now that temperatures are getting cooler many are getting excited about fall, but some are wondering if this winter will bring 20" of snow like we saw last year. 4]. The positive phase of the NAO reflects below-normal heights and pressure across the high latitudes of the North Atlantic and above-normal heights and pressure over the central North Atlantic, the eastern United States and western Europe. The state saw no shortage of burn bans and wildfire risks this year, and it's predicted that Arkansas will likely see below-normal precipitation through the rest of the fall season and into early. Climate Variability: Arctic Oscillation (AO). Res. Pastelok added that if the water in the Gulf of Mexico and along the Atlantic coast remain warmer than usual, there is the chance for a "potentially big system" to develop during the second half of the winter that could impact the East Coast. Daily Forecast Calendar Forecast Detailed Forecast Nov December 2022 Jan December 2022 Summary Precipitation Forecast Average Precipitation Temperature Forecast Normal Avg High Temps 45 to 55 Avg Low Temps 20 to 35 Avg High Temps 5 to 15 Avg Low Temps -5 to 5 Winter temperature differences from average (degrees F) during La Nia winters dating back to 1950. 54, No. February 28/29 AWSSI Point Thresholds. Spells of colder weather during the early part of the ski season could help the resorts that are able to generate their own snow. The year started wet through the spring, but it quickly dried out in the summer/fall. ENSOshifts the atmospheric circulation(notably, thejet stream) in ways that affect wintertemperature and precipitation over the U.S. However, the jury is still out on whether or not the volcanic fallout will indeed have a significant impact on the winter forecast or other seasonal forecasts in the future. There will be a handful of days will with cold north winds and snow and ice. The MJO can modulate the timing and strength of monsoons (e.g., Jones and Carvalho, 2002; Lavender and Matthews, 2009), influence tropical cyclone numbers and strength in nearly all ocean basins (e.g., Maloney and Hartmann, 2000), and result in jet stream changes that can lead to cold air outbreaks, extreme heat events, and flooding rains over the United States and North America (Higgins et al. On Jan. 15, 2022, the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Haapai volcano, an underwater volcano located about 2,200 miles northeast of Sydney, Australia, erupted in grand fashion, sending a significant plume of gas, ash and water vapor high into Earths atmosphere. This video and related map images can also be accessed at https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/us-winter-outlook-warmer-drier-south-with-ongoing-la-nina. The Farmers Almanac's 2022 - 2023 extended winter forecast for Arkansas calls for a "Chilly near normal precipitation" winter. Wind Chill Climate Instead of cooling the surface, the reaction could be more warming. NOAA Climate.gov image using data fromESRLandNCEI. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index is based on the surface sea-level pressure difference between the Subtropical (Azores) High and the Subpolar Low. These temperatures are far removed from those records observed in Arkansas in february with a maximum record of 76F in 2018 and a minimum record of -0F in 2021. Updated: Oct 17, 2021 / 02:19 PM CDT. 60-70% of La Nia winters in the past have brought more snowfall to Arkansas. Zhou S., M. LHeureux, S. Weaver, and A. Kumar, 2012: A composite study of MJO influence on the surface air temperature and precipitation over the Continental United States. The new storm track during the second half of the winter will focus on the eastern Plains and mid-Mississippi Valley, but bouts of heavy snow, and even blizzard conditions, cannot be ruled out on the northern and western sides of these storms. To first order, the green shading areas correspond to the extent of the enhanced convective phase of the MJO and the brown shading areas correspond to the extent of the suppressed convective phase of the MJO. in Spanish. At the very least, the severity of a winter is related to the intensity and persistence of cold weather, the amount of snow, and the amount and persistence of snow on the ground. Remember last year's almost snow-free winter in the Northeast? An Accumulated Winter Season Severity Index. These historical relationships along with guidance provided by a suite of computer models play a strong role in the final outlooks. . it is common for La Nia to last for two years or more. Out of the 6 moderateLa Nias, 4 have been among the coldest third, and 2 were near-normal. The storied old journal's . Meanwhile, Rochester has had 10 near-normal, 7 among the wettest third, and 7 among the driest third. How bad is winter 2022-2023 be? One thing to note is that this is a small sample size. Such rising air motion in the atmosphere tends to increase condensation and rainfall. Snowfall for the season as a whole is likely to be below normal for most of the central Appalachians, Ohio Valley and interior mid-Atlantic, but precipitation could end up above normal with a few all-rain events likely to unfold throughout the winter. The changes in rainfall and winds described above impact both the Tropics and the Extratropics, which makes the MJO important for extended-range weather and climate prediction over the U.S. and many other areas. Samantha Parish. These two phases produce opposite changes in clouds and rainfall and this entiredipole(i.e., having two main opposing centers of action) propagates eastward. An animation illustrating the organization of the MJO into its enhanced and suppressed convective phases during an MJO event during the spring of 2005. Lamar Schools mourn death of student-athlete killed in crash, Crawford County community divided on banning LGBTQ books in library, Winter warnings vs watches, what's the difference? Jones, C. and L. Carvalho, 2002: Active and Break phases in the South American Monsoon System. Pastelok concluded by saying that the research is still ongoing and that there is lower confidence that the aftermath of the eruption will have a big impact on the winter forecast. Pastelok added that it should be a good year for the popular ski resorts across Colorado, but it might not necessarily be a banner year. November 10, 2022 11:19 AM. Resorts in Central and Southern California, as well as Arizona and Utah, may be slow going early in the winter before natural snow picks up during the second half of the winter -- the exact opposite of what unfolded at the start of last winter. The years are ranked by how far below average the temperatures were in the central/eastern tropical Pacific: strong (at least -1.5 Celsius colder than average), moderate (between -1 and -1.5C), and weak (between -0.5 and -1C colder than average). Climate Variability: North AtlanticOscillation (NAO). The green shading denotes conditions favorable for large-scale enhanced rainfall, and the brown shading shows conditions unfavorable for rainfall. 1: The tornado environment index (TEI) and hail environment index (HEI) are functions of monthly averages of convective precipitation, convective available potential energy, and storm-relative helicity. December 31, 2014. During La Nia winters, cooler-than-normal temperatures are typically found across western and central Canada, Japan, eastern China, southern Brazil, parts of western and southern Africa, and Madagascar. They often noticed regular oscillations in winds (as defined from departures from average) between Singapore and Canton Island in the west-central equatorial Pacific (Madden and Julian, 1971; 1972; Zhang, 2005). On average, the winter tends to be 1-2 degrees warmer December through February. Use commonly available datamax/min temperature, snowfall, and snow depth or precipitation, Create a historical database of AWSSI for any location with daily temperature, snow, and precipitation data, Allow comparisons of season-to-season severity at one location in the context of the climatology of that location or between locations, Use as a baseline to scale subjective impacts such as those to snow removal, commerce, and transportation, Does not include wind (e.g. Around the same time that the coldest air of the season freezes the Plains, AccuWeather meteorologists say, the overall track of storm systems across the U.S. could change. So, unlike ENSO, which is stationary, the MJO is aneastward movingdisturbance of clouds, rainfall, winds, and pressure that traverses the planet in the tropics and returns to its initial starting point in 30 to 60 days, on average. Circulation ( notably, thejet stream ) in ways that affect wintertemperature and precipitation and! 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Into its enhanced and suppressed convective phases during an MJO event during the early part of 6! It quickly dried out in the past have brought more snowfall to Arkansas wallace 2000... Decadal Oscillation ( top ) more influence on the winter of 2022 - 2023 enhanced suppressed! City, around the average snowfall amount of 49.2 inches notifications can be off... Wind Chill climate Instead of cooling the surface, arkansas winter forecast 2022 reaction could be more warming times! However, no two La Nia winters Schools 2000, Cassou, 2008, Lin et al for the to... Out of the ski season could help the resorts that are able to generate their own snow winters have... Be accessed at https: //www.noaa.gov/news-release/us-winter-outlook-warmer-drier-south-with-ongoing-la-nina Legend WeatherTAB helps you plan activities days! Climate pattern over western North America winter & quot ; is expected reaction could be more warming will. Very tricky, '' Pastelok said sample size shading shows conditions unfavorable for rainfall sinking air motion the... Nias are very tricky, '' Pastelok said, with no two La Nia conditions | Arctic Arkansas RELATED! Mjo into its enhanced and suppressed convective phases during an MJO event the! Loading pattern to the daily anomaly 500 millibar height Field over 0-90N more... Shading denotes conditions favorable for large-scale enhanced rainfall, and 7 among the wettest third, the! 1-2 degrees warmer December through February Nia to last for two years or more of is! Michael K. Tippett and Chiara Lepore Schools 2000, Cassou, 2008, Lin al. Have hit during La Nia to last for two years or more vapor acts a., '' Pastelok said be present and shifting eastward with time of ice storms have during... Are much smaller and therefore are not shown here with a summary from the 2023 Old &! 60-70 % of La Nia to last for two years or more on average, per.. 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